2016 Euros Team (Partially) Named

Four of the five members have been named to the Euros team. They are: Aliya, Melka, Paseka, and Afan. The coaches think Vika will get the last spot easily if she recovers in time. Otherwise, they will consider Spiridonova and Tutkhalyan. Valentina is concerned that Seda is too unstable (inconsistent) to be of help in a team competition but will nonetheless consider her as an option. Whether it was an oversight or intentional, Kharenkova (BB silver, AA bronze, FX bronze) and Natalia Kapitonova (#1 UB qualifier) weren't mentioned. Reactions to this team have varied, none of them super positive (mostly confusion), but all of them wondering how much weight National results held in picking the team. I don't agree with this team either (I think strategically they could answer multiple nagging questions by sending a different group of girls) but I'm gonna try to defend the team that was picked.

First off, we have to remember that they always said the Euros team would be the Olympic team, which means they've been mapping the progress of each girl since winter training camp began. Camps, Stuttgart, and Nationals, played a significant role in deciding if any of the younger girls would receive a ticket to Bern, Switzerland. Therefore, if a girl did well at Nationals she might not be rewarded with a Euros berth because the coaches consider that spot to be almost a confirmation of Olympic participation.

THIS TEAM

Why was Paseka chosen?

Despite crashing vault so many times this past week, Masha is going to Euros. Certainly she has not EARNED her spot on this team but- BUT- think about the team's long term goals for a minute. They need Paseka for a vault medal and to boost the team's vault average in Rio. Paseka is not behaving very inspiring right now but the sad truth is that there's no one else who can replace her. I wish I could say that Aliya, Seda, Melka, hell, even Alla, were gonna bust out amanars and chengs by July but no such plan seems realistic. Masha is the only one with an amanar and secondary vault of difficulty. The only option the coaches have is to give Paseka a real competition so she can get her head out of her ass. Think about it this way: Paseka is like a car in the wintertime that needs a long warmup before it can be of service. Sure she looked ragged at Nationals but if she has to prepare for a major comp, she will start training harder and her mentality will change as well. Once she's warmed up, her vaults will systematically get better as the season progresses. But first she needs to see people like Steingruber and E. Downie in an arena- she needs to feel threatened before her ambition and drive propel her to the level we know she is capable of. She's not as naturally talented on vault as Biles, Maroney, or Cheng Fei was, but once she's in a "good place" the cheng and amanar will be done properly. With that in mind, the process of getting her to where the team needs her to be starts NOW. That's why I think they're sending her to Euros. Some girls just need to feel pressure and publicity before they get in the zone.

Why was Melka chosen?

You're kidding, right?

Why were Aliya & Afan chosen?

Well, this is a little more complex. Aliya has certainly earned a spot on the team but with her, and Afan, the issue lies in the necessity of sending them. Of the four girls that Valentina named to the Olympic team from November, these two are more reliable. For Komova and Paseka to do their best they have to be healthy, prepared, and supported. Aliya and Afan have competed under every rotten circumstance and they don't just excel on their pet events, they are dependable even on their least favorite apparatus. Like, Afan didn't want to take up beam after coming back from her third foot injury in 2014, but she somehow managed to scrape together a decent set by World's and was even scoring in the mid 14's at the Russian Cup. Aliya can do the same. Because I deem them to be so grounded, I wish the Rodionenko's would replace them with two girls who need to be tested. Right now, our veterans are all in a precarious state of fitness and it would be best to make use of the new depth and send a younger team to Euros (we can still easily win!). I get why Paseka and Vika might need to go- they're talented but unpredictable- but Aliya and Afan are clutch players who will be ready for Rio with kickass routines as long as they're given health and time to upgrade. Consequently, I would prefer to see Tutkhalyan and Kharenkova replace them.  I think a team of Melka, Tut, Kharen, Paseka, and Vika would provide further testing for those who do need the additional time to prove themselves. My best guess as to why Aliya and Afan were chosen is that the coaches want to see how this hypothetical Olympic team works together in a real competition setting, and they want to start tracking their international scores to discover what needs fixing. 

Who should get the last spot if Vika isn't ready?

Spirod is consistently great on bars and lousy on everything else so what's the point in sending her to a competition to be confronted with the same reality for the billionth time? She can win UB gold but with the current team, so might Aliya or Melka. Now Kapi is a less offensive one eventer because she's usable on BB (6.3) and is super consistent on FX but I think she needs to get some upgrades under her belt, on floor and bars, if she wants to supplant Daria in the minds of the head coaches. There might not be enough time for her to upgrade over the next three weeks so I'm thinking she should spend the spring doing that and come back brilliant in July. I'm aware she isn't a front runner, but remember this is Russia, and the injury list is never obsolete. Not knowing who will be alive by summer, we shouldn't put all our eggs in one basket and neglect girls like Kapi who have workable D-scores and improve at lightning speed (think of how far she's come since early 2015). I think, like most of the girls, she's not done unveiling her AA program so her position, and our perception of her, might change in a few months. But for now, I don't think a Euros berth makes sense. 
That leaves Seda. 
Honestly, they might as well take her. She's put in so many upgrades and her entire week went well until the last day of finals. I feel like the Rod's are genuinely impressed with her but secretly have marked her name off every list because of her long history with falling. The coaches probably feel that gambling on Seda is a risk they can no longer afford to take even though the potential reward grows more tempting following every upgrade. If Vika's incapacitated, then I would love to see Seda at Euros. Hell, unless Vika's doing AA, I would still want Seda!

THE OLYMPIC TEAM!!!
Just kidding.
This would be a disaster.
No offense, lol.
#2one-eventers

What sort of team would you put together after Nationals, and why? What's your strategy or reasoning behind it? 

UPDATE: V. Rodionenko says Melka and Aliya have the surest spots on the Olympic team. We thought Melka was to be the last spot but it seems the other three veterans aren't written in stone. It's probably because none of them have been completely healthy so while still the obvious frontrunners, it does leave open a tiny opportunity for another girl to outperform her way onto this team!