Strategy Takes Shape At The Russian Cup

Grebs talks to the girls after Day 1 about the pros and cons, performance goals, and targets to reach for Day 2

I didn't think we'd have anyone alive by August to make the Russian Cup worthwhile but this competition has lit a fire within the fandom, sparked by massive AA scores from youngsters Elena and Angelina and sustained by other impressive individual performances. Shall we explore what happened over two days of all around madness? For starters, supposedly nothing will be decided by the Cup because decisions have been finalized regarding the Worlds team. Valentina had this to say: "So far it's like this: Eremina and Melnikova for All Around, Ilyankova for bars and beam, and Paseka for vault." She also stressed that in sending Paseka and Spiridonova to Universiade (instead of the Cup) they were trying to focus on the younger girls with an eye toward 2020.

Valentina speaks nonsense daily but when she released that statement last week I didn't feel like she spoke prematurely; Worlds was six weeks away and this team was the only team that made any sense. I have been thinking on how to process the scores that came in from the Russian Cup in conjunction with the scores we got from Universiade... and now... I'm not so sure that the current Worlds team is the only team that could work. There's not cutthroat depth like the U.S traditionally has but it's refreshing to see our team with some options.

First of all, what is Russia trying to achieve?

One consistent target for the Russian federation has always been to improve on their medal haul from the previous quad. Four years ago, the Russian women won three medals (1 gold, 2 bronze) in the post Olympic year thanks to Aliya Mustafina's haul. Any team sent to Montreal needs to better those results in the minds of the coaches.

Another goal they typically set is the long term target of having dominant specialist roles for the Olympics. Unfortunately, they like this talent to be apparent immediately. Four years ago Valentina and Andrei Rodionenko were dismissive of the 2013 Worlds team saying most girls wouldn't factor into a team situation in 2014 because they were not strong enough to win medals in Antwerp so there was no point in investing further in them. This differs from China and USA who pick their first year girls with an eye toward their development and potential use in later team finals. This year's Worlds team must consequently contain girls with flourishing strength on one apparatus in order to continue to receive the support of head coaches.

A third goal is to prepare for the new Olympic team size by strengthening the country's AA depth. A four women team could sustain non- AA'ers but they'd need to be usable on two or three events and be damn good at that. More likely, Russia would feel secure with four AA'ers. Head coaches are never impressed with jack-of-all-trades AA'ers like Kapitonova circa 2016. They want AA'ers like Komova and Mustafina, all arounders with medal potential outside the AA which is a difficult talent to develop and sustain.

The federation is proud of their heritage so maintaining a presence on top of traditional podiums will be of immense importance. Of course they like to gain ground in new places but certain apparatus are considered as points of pride and the loss of finalists or medalist in those events upset the head coaches more than any other. This Worlds team should be killer on bars basically.

Worlds Team #1

Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor
Melnikova (2)	Melnikova	Melnikova	Melnikova
Eremina	Eremina	Eremina	Eremina
Paseka (2)
	Iliankova	Iliankova

This is the Worlds team as we know it. Angelina scored a 57.575 and a 57.650 to defend her title. She's made everyone happy by counting no falls over two days, a significant improvement from Nationals where she finished tenth. Her dty is serving to widen the gap between her and Elena's programs as the two are almost evenly matched elsewhere. Her bars are lacking endurance, particularly when her arms go soft holding positions, and there are finer points of execution that will need to be cleaned up if she's to get anywhere near the score domestic judges awarded her. Nothing's changed on beam in terms of composition, she's simply more receptive to movement across the beam and isn't wobbling every other step. She almost fell on Day 1 so she's not totally relaxed. On floor her tumbling looks mighty fine and I simply ask that she stop rushing the dance elements so much. You could lose a floor title that way. Little errors here and there, but Gelya looks primed to fight for the gold on a few apparatus in October. The scores are honestly insignificant to me; a domestic meet is bound to have inflation but what matters is whether she seems comparable to the best outside of Russia (who are also getting overscored)- and Melka looks quality. Her inclusion on this team is the easiest no brainer.





Elena is also a given. Her Day 1 total marked the highest AA score awarded in the world and her Day 2 total would've been in the same range had she not fallen on vault (her achilles heel). I already know not to expect the 9+ e-scores that brought her to those AA numbers. But I also know her scores from Euros contained big errors, and even with those huge deductions, were incredibly encouraging. With massive upgrades on bars and floor, she is capable of beating plenty if she goes clean and isn't downgraded. And there's no question she'll be doing a dty at Worlds. C'mon guys, she's shaping up like Aliya. She doesn't go to competitions to tread water!

Anastasia Iliankova competed ub & bb on Day 1 scoring 14.7 and 13.9 respectively. Her bars were amazing, especially the height achieved on the hindorff (although the shang is worthy as well). She and Elena would most likely make the bars final but I don't think she could beat either AA'er on beam without a fall. Even then, her beam is not finals worthy. When I was watching the Day 1 videos I thought I was watching Elena so I saw a blurry girl mount the beam with a loso and I jumped in my seat- I couldn't believe they kept that mount! Then I saw her do a roundoff to a crispy kneed "layout" and my heart damn well dropped into my stomach. I looked to the side and realized Elena's video was next in queue to play and I had mistaken the two. Let me tell you I never want to feel that kind of terror again. Iliankova is justified for getting a team spot because the Rod's think she's a bars/beam girl. In truth she's a bars girl who doesn't fall off beam but that's one and the same in Russia.

Paseka is in hot water with staff right now but the Rod's like their vets "saving Russia" so I think habit, if nothing else, will see her safely to Montreal. It shouldn't be the only reason though. She has one of the highest combined difficulties in the world and the capacity to execute that difficulty is something not to be ignored. Her chances of falling in the vault final are sill lower than any of our girls who qualify to beam final. She's made mistakes that cost her titles, but if those mistakes had fixable causes doesn't she still deserve to go? Her first mistake in Cluj was that she wasn't healthy, a fact that's been remedied. Her recent error was a leg locked landing but that's an avoidable tragedy so long as she's conscious of the height she needs to wrap 2.5 twists around. Before the Cup we assumed she was the team's best specialist and the only one who could score in the 15's, but the Rod's think she's been headcasing and the current team layout doesn't allow her to do bars. Is there another option?

Worlds Team #2

Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor
Melnikova (2)	Melnikova	Melnikova	Melnikova
Eremina	Eremina	Eremina	Eremina
		Kharenkova	Kharenkova
	Iliankova

I love how Kharenkova looks like she missed a summer of competition rather than nearly two years of on again, off again training! The former European beam champion has plenty of experience to match Paseka, sans Olympics. She's been to two Euros (where she's additionally medalled in the AA) and to two Worlds. Masha's working with a 6.1 on beam which would still be competitive even if we were working under last quad's CoP. Beam finals are so tricky because theoretically we know who should make the final but plenty never do and furthermore every beam final has been such a splatfest that it's no longer worth it to crunch the numbers too hard. On the one hand, lots of competitors fall. On the flip side, so does Masha. She failed to make a beam final at the past two Worlds and she couldn't defend her title in 2015 after falling in Montpelier. She's not competed internationally since 2015, so while her current work is excellent, it might also be rash for them to rush her on to a team based on one competition. Especially when Paseka and others have had to compete over several meets, bringing their hit rate down. If she was a one-eventer I'd say no to Masha but she also has a strong floor routine which might prove too tempting for the federation to deny. The downside to this team is that only Melka would try for the vault final where she is unlikely to medal. But other than that, the greatest bars, beam, and floor workers that Russia can supply are all in quals.

Worlds Team #3

Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor
Melnikova (2)	Melnikova	Melnikova	Melnikova
Eremina	Eremina	Eremina	Eremina
	Iliankova	Iliankova
Akhaimova (2)			Akhaimova

I didn't like the idea of looking so vulnerable on vault so going with the theme of leaving Paseka out, I subbed in Lilia for the sake of hashing out every possibility. Lilia strengthens our position on floor but has a weaker vault total than Melka. The vault final will probably have one American, two Hungarians, one Frenchwoman, one North Korean (retired?), one Mexican, two Canadians, and that's all I can think of off the top of my head. I know I'm missing people but I can't recall everyone. It would take a miracle for Lilia to make this final. But at least Russia is putting up two or three persons on each event and Lilia could beat Lena (more likely than Melka) on floor. A major problem with this team is that Lilia is still a skittish competitor and not refined for Worlds. Another issue is that we now have two girls not likely to make a final (Nastia on beam, Lilia on vault) so although all events are covered in quals, it serves as nothing more than an experience builder. And the Rod's want those who are able to medal NOW. There is some benefit to sending a girl like Lilia to Worlds and what better year to do it, when scores are the lowest of the quad and plenty people treat it as an experience builder to help them grow. But the Rod's would resent her for it, just as they resented the 2013 team for being too far below standards (although it wasn't their fault the whole A-team grew sick). They shouldn't resent her but they would. I also subbed Daria Elizarova in for Lilia but I couldn't find any difference in the scenario, although I think if Daria had her beam from earlier this year she would've been a very viable option.

Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor
Melnikova	Melnikova	Melnikova	Melnikova
Eremina	Eremina	Eremina	Eremina
			Elizarova
	Iliankova	Iliankova

So going back to what I said about having the best girls on every apparatus, I asked myself if there was no way for Russia to have their cake and eat it too. Turns out there is! But it's not through deserting Maria Paseka!!!

Dun Dun Dun...

Worlds Team #4

Vault	Bars	Beam	Floor
Melnikova	Melnikova	Melnikova	Melnikova
Eremina	Eremina	Eremina	Eremina
		Kharenkova	Kharenkova
Paseka (2)	Paseka

This team has the greatest number of finalist AND the greatest potential for [best case scenario] medals. Oh, keep in mind I'm not adding AA medals into these estimates. Team #1 (see top) could put two into every final and come away with five or six individual medals if they did their best work. I counted Paseka (vt), Eremina (ub,fx maybe), Iliankova (ub), and Melnikova (bb,fx). Team #4 could also put two into every final and come away with six or seven individual medals. I counted Paseka (vt), Eremina (ub), Kharenkova (bb, fx) and Melnikova (ub maybe, bb, fx). Like any prediction, there are several disclaimers. I didn't include Lena in any beam medal scenario because "beam is beam." Eremina has beautiful form and might make finals but she's downgraded from the loso mount and taken out the split jump 1/1 so she's lost three tenths. If plenty of others fall, sure she could medal, but "beam is beam" and she might fall too lol. On floor she's always been great and qualified in third at Euros with 13.633 so with three more tenths she has the competitive d-score but it's anyone's guess if she can handle the endurance of that routine (DLO, 1.5 to 2.5 punch front, triple). I could barely see her landings in the Day 1 video. My guess is she'd play it safe in quals and AA and throw everything in EF's if she got the chance.

The downside of Team #4 is that I trust a bar worker more than I trust a beam worker. I feel uncomfortable leaving Iliankova off a bars lineup but Team #4 still has Melka likely to fix herself and make the final (6.1 d-score). More importantly we still have Lena who is a European silver medalist and has upgraded. Do we like the idea of Iliankova and Eremina medalling on bars (a good possibility) or do we risk dropping Nastia, medal once on bars but try for two on beam? Essentially both teams are super strong but only Team #4 gives us the highest chance for gold on each event by taking Kharenkova and Paseka. I guess that's what does it for me: I want Russia to defend its title on vault and we need Paseka for that. And this is the strongest beam lineup in years so I want to risk it by taking Maria too. Locking in my golden team: Paseka on vault, Elena on bars, Kharenkova on beam, and Melnikova on floor. We have intense competition and our international rivals are good. Really really good. But so is this team and I'd be afraid of a lineup like this if I was rooting for another country.


It seems to me the Rodionenko's are rethinking things. Hopefully they're not getting sucked into the crack judging. But at the same time, the quicker they finalize the team the better the girls can work on fine tuning for Worlds. These last four weeks ought to be spent fixing the execution errors and testing physical endurance by doing repertoires, just like Alexandrov had the old team do. I've no doubt the Russian Cup EF's will make things interesting. I won't be able to cover the EF's until Sunday but I'll do a recap covering the content of the routines and thoughts on execution/artistry, something I've neglected to do here because of the exciting team possibilities. Since my head hurts wondering if I've covered every possibility I want to know: what does your dream team and your golden team look like?

Or is this the team?