2015 World's Draft and Thoughts

Russia will be in subdivision 5 which is...ok. My only apprehension is that as the only top team in that sub, they'll somehow allow themselves to get too comfortable and present sub-par quality which will obviously affect the EF's. With so many strong teams to come, it's imperative that Russia finishes the qualifications going1-2 on every event to even have a chance of getting two into every final, honestly. Romania will have a tough time going in subdivision 1. The worst part is that they will set the tone and won't have the benefit of knowing what scores they have to beat. 

GBR and BRA will make things interesting in Sub 4. Brazil desperately wants to qualify top 8 so they can qualify to the Olympics but without Rebecca Andrade, an injured Jade Barbosa, and Flavia Saraiva's inconsistency, will they? GBR is looking weaker than last year with their best bar workers still coming back from injury and no competitions under their belt. Additionally, the loss of a potential amanar comes in the form of Tyesha Mattis being injured again; consistent and clean all arounder Gabby Jupp is also out with a second ACL tear. Claudia Fragapane has upgraded a lot but is scoring the same in AA and on her speciality events as she did in 2014... but if she has finally improved on execution and can be consistent about it, she may be the one bright spot for GBR. I expect Becky Downie to put up their strongest score on any event and make UB finals. I think the worst thing about GBR might just be that I haven't really seen anything that I can conclusively call "improvement." They still won medals at 2015 Euros and they still have solid AAers who can score 55-57 but nothing really changed from last year? 

China is in subdivision 7 so it'll be interesting to see if they take the lead from Russia after the halfway point. They were recently beaten by Japan at the Asian Championships with a full strength team, making Chinese fans anxious. Sure, they had mistakes but not many actually (just one fall) and they're the sort of mistakes they WOULD make in a TF at World's so I can't really say that I expect much improvement. Some teams have flukes and others are just known for effing up when it matters. But they were missing Shang...and that's important. 

Japan is in subdivision 2 and will likely lead the board even though a BIG 4 nation went earlier (ROU). I'm anxious to see if any of the Japanese will hit on a floor that isn't SENOH, the Japanese gym floor manufacturer that makes super springy floors [recently used at the Asian Championships]. Japan WAG has a history of not doing good on int'l floors so we'll see about Miss Sae Miyakawa. Canada is in subdivision 3 and is starting on bars (blech); I don't like that. Not at all a good piece for Canada to start on. They show massive potential on the event but so many clumsy mistakes year after year with this team. The lineup will likely be Ellie Black, Isabela Onyshko, and Brittany Rogers. Ellie is inconsistent, Isabela is as well but the worst offender is her form, especially the pak, and Rogers is actually swell on UB but will she have the endurance for such a stacked elite routine after being away for 3 years?

I'm excited to see the Netherlands in subdivision 10 and the Germans in subdivision 6. Can either of them be the team that kicks Brazil out of top 8 and forces them to the Test Event? I hope that their advantageous draw does wonderful things for the Dutch chances of TF and EF's (particularly beam). The Germans should be able to put two into an uneven bars final but that field is starting to look very competitive the more i think on it.

And finally...DUN DUN DUN...USA. 

They are in possibly the best placed subdivision of all...10. As if they needed the help. They'll have ample opportunity to see how the leaderboard stacks up and know exactly what SV routines they'll need to do to take that coveted top spot. There's literally no pressure and i'm dying thinking how this team always gets all the luck. They are expected to lead after quals and I think only five people in the world think anyone but USA will get gold in TF!

So that's the draw come hell or high water.