DTB Team Challenge Cup: Assessment

It was a good weekend for Russia in many regards. Five out of six of the girls sent to Germany attempted at least one upgrade, three bars scores were valued at over 15 points, the situation on FX has improved, and the team defeated an experienced German one by almost seven points. There's still a lot of time between now and Rio but some questions have been answered, if only partially. 

source: mustagym.tumblr.com

Angelina Melnikova started her senior debut quieter than international girls competing elsewhere last weekend, but her admission into the senior ranks was exactly the coming out party fans wanted to see. She carries a 6.0+ D-score on all events, except vault, and was looking very sharp on bars and floor in the final. The most exciting news is that she currently has the second most difficult floor routine after Mama Afan and what I saw from her, between quals and finals, permeated confidence [even though she did have a fluke fall on her whip+whip to double tuck]. In the team final, she improved her DTY by half a point and took a 15.033 on uneven bars, with some short handstands but stunning inbars and great accuracy overall. I think there's plenty of upgrade potential there. Beam was shaky, coming off on a bhs+bhs+layout to two feet. The first back handspring was fine but the second one lacked momentum and she didn't get enough of a punch out of it to complete the layout vertically, landing piked before falling. The fall plus additional wobbles resulted in a 12.866. One thing that distresses me about Melka is her constant second guessing on beam, which is a shame considering every skill is executed well in the air. Fans should note that we have yet to see her reach the infamous 6.7 D Valentina has been gushing about (in the TF she was given a 5.7 and in quals a 6.1, so she's quite a ways off from convincing me she's capable of that difficulty). Sometimes people downgrade because it's the early season but the way Angelina performed didn't look like a girl who is used to training something substantially more difficult. On floor, her Kalinka'd up choreography had the audience in the palm of her hands, and perhaps that psychologically affected the judges because I can't see the 6 tenths difference in execution from her qualifications (not including her 1.0 fall obviously). Overall, my impression of Melka is of a beautiful maturing gymnast whose claim to Rio just got more likely. And if this magical beam routine should ever appear I think there's no one else who should go...

She moves just like Madison Kocian (USA) on BB and UB

Kapitnova's Rio allure is definitely her potential as a UB/BB specialist WITH the additional capability to go up on floor if the situation required it. Her scores of 15.133 (UB) and 14.033 (BB) must certainly give the coaches something to think about. Personally, what excites me most about Natalia is her rate of improvement: to go from 'the girl who does spins' to the girl who beat Melnikova, not once but twice last year, is truly dizzying. It does make me wonder if this late bloomer might have some last minute upgrades for Nationals? Her D-scores are so competitive yet her 6.3 BB lacks the sophisticated poise she evokes when performing her 6.5 UB. Still... those numbers are nothing to balk at. And let's consider that her beam is more risky than her cookie cutter bar routine; some of her skills are a double spin, a bhs+bhs+layout, a 1.5 Y turn (!), a wolf jump to punch front combo, and a double pike dismount out of two back handsprings. Her e-score was lowered by several wobbles so just think where this routine could be scoring with even moderately good execution (not to mention if she ever excels).

Anastasia Dmitrieva...I had sooo many hopes for this one. Don't get me wrong, she delivered two good scores for the team but I cherished the hope she might be progressing more by now. She isn't. Her DTY technique is green and her floor routine lacks stamina (and some of the magic it once held). She was never in the running for Rio but I once thought she might make a name for herself as Russia's de facto floor specialist for next quad. Now...I'm not so certain. Her body has changed but she's not getting any additional power out of it. Subsequently, things that seemed upgradable now look labored. Crashing two DTY's and barely standing up a final pass is not a promising start to the year. On the bright side, her FX was by no means a disaster and she did well to rein in her landings and come through with a 13.8. 

Daria Spiridonova only performed on bars in the team final but as usual she delivered a clutch routine, scoring 15.133 (6.5 D) to tie with Kapitonova on that event. I'm not worried about Dasha still using a 6.7 D-score (as she did in quals)...for now. I'm pretty sure she's working on difficult upgrades and knows that her current level isn't enough. How do I know this? Well, think about it... a 6.7 wasn't enough for her to win the World title outright, so I'm positive she's not being complacent about her situation. Since many of the best bar workers already had her D-score (or higher) last year, it stands to reason she's planning upgrades in order to keep up or surpass the competition. As for her qualification routine that scored a 15.560, it was overscored based on what she's done in the past, but in line with how other girls were scored during the meet, which is all that matters. She had some short handstands and some untidiness we're not used to seeing from her but she looked very well for her opening meet, and besides, her standard is excellent so it's not as if she can't achieve a 15.650 later this year and be worthy of it. The fact that she was overlooked for beam lineup despite scoring a 13.6 in quals highlights the coach's desperation for her to do more and do better. It's not helping matters that three girls definitely going to Rio are already excellent on bars. Vika and Aliya will surely put up mid 15's or higher- as long as their D-scores are where it needs to be- and Paseka has become a competent and dependable asset on the event as well. I can't see Spirod becoming a legitimate UB/BB specialist between last weekend and next weekend (the start of Nationals) so my feeling is that her prospects depend as much on how other girls do as it does on her own ability. 

I love this picture: Nastia is adorable, Shelgy knows she's done,
Melka and Dasha are smug from their greatness,
and Kapi is like 'just wait'.

Well, we wondered what it might be like to see Shelgunova excel at a big meet but she let us down horribly, didn't she? It's regrettable, considering her domestic scores were the key to this Olympic puzzle. But she's proven for the upteenth time that she can't be trusted outside of her own borders lol. After crashing vault, bars, and beam in quals she was only allowed redemption on the latter piece in finals. Some think it's strange she was used on beam over Dasha but when you consider the difference in D-scores and her history of general stability on only this event then it makes a little more sense. That, or the coaches no longer believe in Dasha's ability to improve. Her D-scores everywhere took a dive from what she was being credited in Russia but even that might've been ok if still performed with the assurance and proficiency she displayed at the small meets. I think it was smart of the Rodionenko's to unriddle her curious triumphs as quickly as they did by sending her abroad. They can look onward to Nationals, focusing on the best prospects, and not have any guilt about overlooking Zhenya. 

I pray the best days are to come for this team.

So that's the team, but I think there are two more girls it's important for us to consider: Daria Skrypnik and Maria Kharenkova. The latter is usable on three events if she's back to her 2015 Euros level and the former has a possibility as a UB/BB specialist. Skrypnik was originally part of the DTB team and is not currently injured so I expect her to challenge Spirod and Kapi at Nat's. It's a pity the growth spurt derailed her progress last year but hopefully she's now comfortable with her advanced height and will perform admirably. Her expulsion from the team might be a painful hint that she's not a serious contender though; Stuttgart functioned for Russia as Jesolo does for the Americans so her replacement perhaps wasn't a good sign. Once again, Aliya Mustafina will not be competing at Nationals so we'll get a candid look into the AA situation without Russia's top champion. I'm optimistic results will look better than last year. If girls are still scoring in the 56's it'll be because of falls, whereas scoring 56 in 2015 was the culmination of hit routines. After Germany, I believe the three girls being considered are Kapitonova, Spiridonova, and Melnikova, but with a strong leaning towards the latter two.