A Messy Start to the Final Test

Lucky leo not so lucky

With the Olympic status of Ksenia Afanyseva still in the air, the Russian Cup offers staff the last opportunity to consider the prospects of an alternate team. Those who proved themselves at Euros, Aliya and Melka, do not need to regard this competition as a make or break it moment. But others, such as Seda or Kapitonova- possible replacements for Ksenia- needed to make every routine count. Neither did that. It is only qualifications, but Russia still continues to show a lower level of preparation, concentration, and fully formed routines in relation to other countries at this stage. I'm not worried about Aliya's moderately sluggish performances but I am worried about what the fatigue might indicate; she competed earlier than was originally anticipated this year- did she peak (energy wise) at the wrong time? I just hope her health holds up for the final mile. Overall, she did seem healthy enough but bars was a struggle and I got the feeling that she wasn't fighting hard on any event so she probably didnt even wanna be there lol. She showed a new tumbling pass on floor, a full twisting double tuck, and I wonder if this a replacement for the double layout or an additional upgrade. She could eventually have a double arabian, double layout, 1/1 double tuck, and 2.5 to full. If she's really up for another Olympic fx medal she could add in the whips, the stag, and dance combos. I'm excited to see where she's going with this. Her beam and bars I don't think will change too much, but perhaps she will bring back her London routine on UB for a 6.7. Starkin doesn't coach Aliya on bars so his latest interview might be insignificant but he seems to think Aliya would've won more than a bronze at Euros had she done her 6.5 routine. It's true that she was given 9.0 e-scores in Baku for the same set, but it's relying too much on the dubious e-panel of judges, and I think Aliya has come to the same conclusion. She herself indicated there was more to come on UB so we shall see. Oh, and btw, Aliya changed her acro series on beam again. Now it's an onodi to side aerial. Long live the queen. 

Seda performed an upgraded bar routine but struggled with form on the pak, a very difficult skill for most people when combined with a release element. She was leniently scored with a 13.975 that saw her overshoot a handstand and take an extra half swing, but I remain impressed with her willingness to tackle more difficulty on her worst event. On beam, she fell on the full-in dismount and was wobbly everywhere so I'm still convinced she's not worth bringing to Rio. If she was even 75% consistent I would say she's worth the gamble but we KNOW she will fall at least once during a multi-day competition and I'm not willing for that day to be TF. I love that she gained new skills but I would gladly trade those new skills for more stamina, confidence, and stability. The good news is that her dty and floor were good and she broke 14 on the latter. Other good news is the return of Maria Paseka, and boy was I happy to see such a nice amanar from her. She's not where she was last year but she landed it right down the middle with good height too, so she just needs to tighten up her leg form and we might be able to count a 15.6 or so from her. A 14.8 for a cheng tells me it was a mess, but she landed it so that's already better than her Nationals showing. It's interesting that some people think Russia should focus on individual medals over a TF, when based on current d-scores and performances up against the international field, there's not one medal winning routine that was done today.  

Kapitonova, Spiridonova, and Shelgunova all had mixed results, with the few positives overwhelmed by mostly unfavorable performances. Kapitonova debuted a 6.6 UB but came off on the chow 1/2. She still scored reasonably well and based on her body language seemed upset so hopefully she'll kill it for the rest of the week. No video footage emerged of her other events but based on the scores (12.3 BB, 13.5 FX) she had a bad day. She has the excuse of lack of experience on her side but the other two girls (and even Seda) do not. Spiri continues to be as she ever was, excellent on bars and shit on beam. Even though I don't think she can win an individual medal anymore, Russia needs her 6.7 more than ever so her spot is secure. It's difficult to say where these results are leading Russia, but one thing is for certain: without Afan a gulf sized hole has emerged and no other girl has proven she can fill it.