The State of the Team

Vika's VK message has spread like wildfire: "Dear friends, fans, and gymnastics lovers, unfortunately back pain isn’t allowing me to train to my full potential and get ready for future competitions anymore. I’ve made the very difficult decision to stop training and take care of my health. I want to thank everyone for their support! Without your love and warmth it would’ve been more difficult to go all the way. Thanks everyone and see you soon! Love and kisses." 

Sounds like a retirement and is being treated as one. I think I'll wait for an official memo from the administration on this one. I love denial and this one hurts. 


Maria Paseka also isn't training right now, but it's not clear if anything is wrong with her or she's just taking a mini-break at home. You'll recall she was hospitalized about two weeks before ECh and was back at Round Lake during Euros, training with Vika, although I don't think it was anything heavy duty since most of the staff were gone and in those instances the girls never seem to train full days. Ksenia Afanasyeva just had surgery in Munich on her ankle so her recovery time (normally 6 weeks) gives her no time to train for Rio. A special brand of health insurance needs to be created solely for Russian gym fans...

Alright...let's think...

Worse Case Scenario, Who Goes?
If Afan is out, a reliable three event gymnast needs to replace her. This gymnast doesn't have to have the same three events as Afan, but FX should be one of them. 

If Paseka is out, Russia can still manage three DTY's but only Aliya's will probably touch 15, which is not ideal if you can't break 45.00 on the highest scoring apparatus. But at least we are covered on vault. Lol, is Alla still training a cheng or amanar? I'm laughing but #Imdeadserious. 

If Vika is out, the need for a REAL UB/BB specialist becomes eminent. Everyone on the team has the first part of the equation covered. However, there's no use pretending Spiri isn't going to replace Vika, despite the desperate need for every girl to be ready on minimum two events in an absolute emergency (like what happened at Euros). 

My replacements would be Kapi/Kharenkova, Seda, and Spiridonova but this team is weak and might not withstand the competition unless Aliya upgrades the hell out of everything. If she can reach over 60.500 in the AA, everyone else should be able to back her up with decent scores on their pet events, and I believe we'll be safe. It's a lot on Aliya, though. But...when is it not?

Just How Bad Is Russia's Situation Getting?
I don't know, we have to see if Valentina has anymore curses in mind. Teeheehee, just kidding, just kidding. I'm laughing but #Imdeadserious

Great Britain had 66.7 in total difficulty from ECh quals. This number can get stronger on beam and floor. On floor, they had to count a 5.7 from Harrold which they would not count if Amy Tinkler (5.9) was present. They also counted a 5.7 from Jupp on beam which would be replaced by E. Downie's 6.1 when she returns to AA. Then we must consider that R. Downie upgraded half a point in finals on bars to 6.9. So their new total, discounting any secret upgrades for Rio, is 67.8 in a three up, three count. 

China named both a nominative Olympic team and an Olympic training team which includes some additional girls, so I'll just tell you what they have in a 3-up-3-count. Floor (6.6 from Wang Yan, 6.6 from Chunsong, 6.4 from Mao Yi). Beam (6.7 from Yilin, 6.7 from Chunsong, 6.6 from Liu Tingting), Bars (7.2 from Yilin, 6.7 from Chunsong, 6.5 from Liu Tingting), Vault (6.2 from Wang Yan, 6.3 from Tan, 5.8 from Mao Yi). Currently, Tan isn't on the nominative team but is still in contention, so China might carry two DTY's and one rudi if she's dropped. Or they might leave Tingting behind. Either scenario presents a strong team (at least on paper)- in reality, not all their players are good at living up to their difficulty.

Japan has strong floor routines but their star worker, Sae Miyakawa, recently downgraded from her normal 6.5 fx. Perhaps that's temporary, and if so, they will have 19 in difficulty on floor from their top 3 girls (6.5, 6.5, 6.0). They also have a potential to reach 19 (6.3, 6.3, 6.4) on beam. Vaulting is covered by good DTY's but bars remains the main reason they have yet to surpass GBR. Good execution but low difficulty generally averaging in the high 5's. Still, in a quad that has seen them come out from the shadow of their illustrious men's team, we must consider that they know this and will rise to the challenge for an Olympic competition. So, Japan is a very strong contender for a medal if they do their best work.

Can Our Girls Hold Steady?
'Steady' being the operative word, because consistency more than anything will differentiate the rankings. As I said, much will now be on Mustafina to carry what might end up being a fresh (too fresh maybe) team of younglings through the most intense competition of their career. Obviously, she can do it, but what do the other girls need to do in time for the Russian Cup and through summer?

Seda: lose the full twisting layout and add another acro series, upgrade floor, continue to perfect the execution on her new 6.0 UB

Kapi: upgrade bars and floor (currently is doing this, so that's good), countless repetitions of full beam sets to make that 6.3 SV consistent

Kharenkova: return to her 2015 Euros form on floor and bars, DON'T TRY TO UPGRADE BEAM (keep what works and scores well)

Spiri: An upgraded bars routine is her concern, and train beam, just because...

Melka: work harder on mastering the dance elements on floor because her D-score drops down by four tenths with dance mistakes. She mentioned connecting her skills on UB which is a good idea, an easy way for Russia to pick up tenths using their best event.

Aliya: Be Aliya, save Russia, etc.

Alla: Be a Russian and have a cheng ready to go. Pretty please.

I honestly feel like Paseka will be in Rio. Just a feeling. But if she's not we need to be prepared. All this scrapping Russia has to do is the result of an ill prepared younger generation not given the undivided time, attention, and encouragement to succeed. Each of them always tossed aside as soon as a veteran made a return, and now we might be heading to Rio with only one! I never liked that they were always so public about who was the A-team and who was in a filler spot. In 2014 when Russia took bronze in TF, Valentina told the media that none of those girls except Aliya would be on next year's team because this was just the best they could come up with after injuries. In 2015, after a star studded team won no medal, she named four of them to the Olympic team. After 2016 Nationals saw the younger girls by and far outdo their idols, they picked a Euros team that bore no resemblance to those results. After Euros, she named a training squad that did not include Kharenkova or Kapitonova. Idk guys, maybe this is comeuppance. 
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Regarding Viktoria, as I said, I'm in a state of shock and denial, but if this truly is it for Vika and I nevermore will be blessed with her beautiful gymnastics, I'm glad that her final routine at the World level was one in which she FOUGHT through her problems, a metaphor for this entire quad. You didn't reach the end goal but you fought and came back several times. Thank you.