Kapitonova Replaces Paseka

Maria Paseka is not deemed fit for competition after suffering a bout of illness and, more recently, a bad case of back pain so she was replaced on the Euros team by first year senior Natalia Kapitonova. Now I advocated that Kapi be on my ideal Euros team but I always knew that Seda should be the first choice if any opportunity arose for replacement. What does it mean that Kapi has now been added? There are a few consequences: for one, I'm now very worried that the two veterans who most needed international experience are in training limbo. Secondly, it shakes up the starting order for each girl since Paseka and Kapi have different strengths. Thirdly, it makes a bars lineup for TF a very fierce debate. And finally, Russia might have a lineup that makes them more competitive, even though it doesn't appear so at first.


But before I get into any of that I just want to remind fans that Kapi is not replacing Paseka because she's better than her or the Rod's are overly impressed with her, but because they think she's the next best thing. It seems too obvious a fact to even utter but I say it because people are already blaming Natalia for the gloomy anticipation of losing gold to GB. Grow some perspective peeps: Paseka is off the team because she cannot deliver anything of worth to the team right now. While it hurts to know that Kapi's 14 on fx might've been a 15+ with Masha on vault, that score is delusionary because Paseka could not offer up that type of score if she went in her current state. So let's be glad we might get a good fx score, pretend Paseka was never a part of the team, and imagine that this is the first time the team is going to be named: Aliya, Melka, Dasha, Afan, and Kapi. Hopefully this allows some of you to asses the strengths and weaknesses in a more impartial light. Russia's not losing anything by replacing Paseka because nothing was there to begin with! That should've been obvious to us from Nationals. Masha was put on the team after falling everywhere, and while I'd hoped it was due to her usual pattern of flunking domestic comps, I started examining other prospects once I heard she was ill. My concern for Paseka is if she'll have the strength, stamina, and drive to return or surpass last year's level of excellence. 

With the current team, Russia has this many usable routines: (2) DTY's, unless Aliya vaults which I feel she might do (2) FTY's/ (4) 15+ UB/ (2) BB over 6.1 (1) BB at 6.1 and (1) unknown D value BB (Afan)/ (3) 14+ FX routines

Not so bad after all.

So why wasn't Seda picked? *Sigh* I've had my fears about Seda for some time now; after WC Stuttgart, I thought she further damaged the trust of every decision maker at Round Lake. Her potential scores could boost Russia more than Kapi's on the two events that need work (vt, bb) but her exclusion hints that I was right to fear her getting blackballed. The Rod's don't trust her anymore, and Valentina said as much right after Nationals. If the original Euros team showed us anything it's that Russia is going conservative after missing an easy team medal at Worlds. They're not being blindsided by unfulfilled potential anymore, especially if they consider themselves to have been fair about giving plenty of chances. Seda's exclusion from the original team highlighted that fact, and her continued exclusion in the face of injuries drives home the point: the coaches want dependability. Maybe they think tough love will shape her into a more hardened competitor by summer. Or maybe they don't care at all and she's not being considered for Rio no matter what she does. 

Give it two days and we'll hear Nabieva is going to Euros.
Hell yes! Save us again with your DTY, Nabs.

I've always recognized that there's a weak link in the Big 4. For years four countries have dominated the important comps and, when I think about it, it's not really surprising to see how it's been done. In Beijing, a subpar Romanian team need only do better than the jittery Russian team and another team medal was assured. In London, a weakened China was the weak link so the other three were assured a podium finish. Before Romania disintegrated, four countries had a 25% chance of winning gold and 75% chance of medalling because no one else could beat them outside of their little square. Obviously those statistics depend a great deal on annual combined difficulty, execution and other factors, but when the Big 4 was really the BIG FOUR- especially under the perfect ten system- they were more evenly matched and 3/4 teams were assured a medal if they could just stay above the weakest one. Year to year and quad to quad the weak team changed.

But now everything else has changed as well. New teams are developing strong programs and maybe a breakthrough won't happen this quad but probably next quad. Or the one after. Or after that. Point is, the name of the top countries are changing and someday a Big 5 or 6 will emerge formed by teams like Japan, Brazil, Britain and others on a similar rise. Don't scoff at Belgium today because a team like USA started out the same way and began to claw their way up. Gymnastics is growing as a sport and that's excellent and exciting, but it's also terrifying because I don't know who's the next big threat to my favorite team. When Russia made mistakes in the past they still medalled plenty of times because the list of international contenders was scant. But now, or soon, there will be a lot more competition for those medals and I don't need to tell you how a nervy team like Russia could lose out. What happened at Worlds might be a bleak look into a very real and very nightmarish future if this program doesn't develop girls who are mentally strong enough to handle the tasks they are given. 

These issues must be on the minds of the head coaches because I'm sure they realize what a talent Seda is and the prospective scores they're losing out on by barring her. But they also know she has never not fallen during a multi-day competition and I think they're sick of that. By choosing Kapi they are doing what most people want (giving the youth a chance) while still sticking as close as possible to their strategy of safe over sorry scenarios. Kapitonova can score low 14's on three events and a 15+ on her best one. Those score won't climb at Euros...but they won't go down because of falls, either. The statistics are in her favor to hit any event they put her on and that is the kind of gymnast they want to work with this year.

Well these are my thoughts, and I'll end by reiterating that I want both Kapi and Seda on the Euros team (Dasha gone) but there's so much time for more shakeups so I remain confident everything will work out in the end. Get well, Paseka, I miss your sunny face.