The Olympic Draft for WAG

Podium training for Russia's subdivision will begin at 8:45 a.m ET (click here to convert to your timezone), and they will have a little over 2 hours to stay in the arena and use the equipment. They're starting on beam in Sub 2 so one of two things will happen, either of which will set the tone for the rest of qualifications. The first thing that might happen is they subconsciously play it safe. I say 'subconsciously' because they are trained to go for full difficulty, for EF potential, but their mental state will be preoccupied with setting up for a good team final, and staying on the beam is the bare minimum to get that done. They will be a little hesitant and guarded in their performances but the one blessing they've been gifted is that this quad is weak on beam queens so they MIGHT be able to afford a safe routine and still make an EF. Maybe. The second thing that could happen is that they completely bomb this apparatus, as they've been doing all quad. This seems to be what most people expect will happen. I will never forget Paseka's stunned demeanor when asked why the girls failed to make podium at Worlds: "To be honest, it's very strange, because we prepared on this apparatus (beam) more than any other [leading up to Worlds]. On the other events, everything was stable & good. We've trained for days and nights on the beam. Maybe it's our psychology. Or it's just a sign that we must work even harder. What can I say...some girls are too nervous. I don't know what happened." So Russia will begin to match their controlled trainings to the Olympic start order but, as Masha said, the manner of preparation doesn't seem to make any difference because the girls are very nervous. And the more they fall, the more they become aware of their failure, and the bigger the burden to overcome it grows, as do the nerves. It's a vicious cycle that will end only when the team is dominated by new talent (girls like Zubova, Klimenko, Eremina, etc.) After beam they'll go to their worst apparatus, floor, so we should know how TF and EF chances stack up within two rotations. I guarantee bars will easily have two Russians and Paseka (maybe Afan, i dunno) will go for VT, but beam and floor is a mystery. Let's just annotate those apparatus as "TBD." Russia goes early in the day so the saying 'bad dress rehearsal good opening night' does not apply. If enough strong routines aren't forthcoming, we're screwed out of a lot of EF possibilities. 

Belgium and China are in tough spots having to go in Sub 1 early in the morning. For some reason I think Belgium will do well, with their positive can-do attitude and fighting spirit, but I despair for China. They always seem to need a long warmup period before their best work emerges. Most years, I'm able to trace the rise in their scores as they go from quals to team to individual finals. I can always depend on them to do better the next time because they have something to correct. They are 'the comeback kid' type of team, bolstered by determination, not confidence. I doubt starting first is good for their strategy of qualifying two potential medalists to UB and BB, their target events, but they have technique and skill on their side so good routines should hold firm after 4 more sub's. 

The Germans are in a most pitiful state. They start on their lowest scoring event (floor) and end on their least consistent one (beam). Additionally, they have the privilege of competing with Brazil so good luck concentrating through all the screaming screeching chanting football-turned-gymnastics fans. I wish the Belgians had this rotation because they are precisely the type of team that can rally among themselves whether or not the crowd is there to support them. The Germans will need to have a confident opening rotation otherwise they're very susceptible to caving to negative momentum. 

Can someone tell me how USA and NED got stuck together AGAIN and in the same favorable starting order they had at Worlds?!? I'm happy for the Dutch and, who knows, maybe replicating the scenario will replicate the results, eh Netherlands? They have an uphill battle to make the TF but their presence ought to be felt in the individual finals, so there's some consolation if they don't make it. I think USA would perform securely no matter what event they begun on, so the only thing I'll conjecture is that they may receive the benefit of looser judging. I mean, quals is only one day...so maybe scoring will remain consistent? But maybe not. Their team will probably be Biles, Douglas, Raisman or Nichols, Hernandez, and Kocian so that's a very consistent group of players. They've done a lot to fix their beam situation since November so in my opinion they start and end on what for everyone else are the worst events. 

The last subdivision is make it or break it time. Any of the teams in this subdivision have the ability to cause a huge upset. I think France is the weakest of the three but Canada's execution is never very high and Japan can compete timidly sometimes. But if all three show up and kill it, Japan could finish top 4, Canada could finish top 6 and France could oust one of the earlier teams. Yep, this is the subdivision that kills dreams no matter what happens.

My prediction is USA, CHN, RUS, JPN, GBR, CAN, BRA, and BEL qualify full teams. Room for error is nil and the fight for positions 7 & 8 is fierce. My top 6 countries seem secure but Belgium will need both Nina and Axelle as well as the full health of every team member, Brazil will need Andrade useful on all 4 events, Italy needs to have upgrades to match their amazing consistency, Netherlands needs to feed off USA's adrenaline and perform the hell out of every routine, and France will need to have their specialists actually do their jobs for once.   

So this is the order. What are your thoughts?

The Olympic draft was conducted in Bangkok and was determined by random draw. The full results, including mixed groups, is here.